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November 22, 2005

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Tom Gordon

I think you're wrong on this one. Beckett is an ace, and hes young. We had nowhere to play hanley. He was going to be in the minors for three more years, as there was no way that we could trade Edgar after last season. And here the best point: Beckett isn't a prospect, hes the same age as Papelbon, yet hes already a proven Yankee-killer and a WS MVP. And Lowell was a gold glover last year, and scots think that the adjustments he made at the end of the year will carry over, with the combo of Fenway make him have a much better year. And honestly, everyone expects nothing from him at the plate, so if he bombs, whatever, hes supposed to be a lemon. But if he rediscovers his stroke, then its a monster trade. I'm all for it.

beth

all good points, tom. except beckett is an "ace" only if he stays healthy. that's a big IF--he hasn't had a very good record of doing that in the past four years. sort of like how matt clement was going to be an asset to the sox IF he could keep his head screwed on under pressure. cf the ALDS this past season.

let's also not forget that the transition from the NL to the AL has not been kind to most pitchers, so adjust his performance on a NL team accordingly.

and let's slow down a bit before calling the guy a true ace. according to http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/11/red_soxmarlins.php>this analysis, "His numbers don't put him in the league of Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, or Johan Santana, but his stuff rates alongside these pitchers, as well as A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Rich Harden, Felix Hernandez, Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano...Beckett's career ERA of 3.46 compares to a park- and league-adjusted norm of 4.04, according to Baseball-Reference.com. His ERA+ is 117, which puts him in the same group as Bartolo Colon, Matt Morris, Mark Mulder, and Kerry Wood..."

or, as i saw it put http://bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com/archives/291692.html#comments>elsewhere, "Beckett is Kerry Wood, but without the record of accomplishment."

yes, WS MVP, definitely an accomplishment. but look at the bulk of his career so far. he's not pedro martinez. he's not curt schilling, either. and the post-ankle-surgery curt schilling of 2005 plus josh beckett of 2005 does not even close to equal pedro + curt of 2004.

is he a good pitcher? yes. a very good pitcher? possibly, with a lot of "ifs" attached. is he a true ace? depends on your definition. if you're going by mine, he's not.

but whatever can be said for beckett, i am still not in favor of trading hanley ramirez. i still think it's mortgaging the future. also, i can't say i agree with you that a guy who's "supposed to be a lemon" has any upside for the sox, especially if we might lose bill mueller at the position.

but, we'll see, and i admit i might be wrong on this. i thank you for a thoughtful comment.

Cathryn

This makes me nervous, too, and here's where I've settled on the subject for now: I'm more or less happy with this trade, as long as it doesn't because a theme. One trade does not a gutting make, but if they keep trading prospect after prospect this winter, then I will panic. I will panic real good.

gtr

I would normally agree with you, but not in this situation. The upside on beckett is too high. Yep, there are some 'ifs', but there always is.

As far as ramirez, shortstop is taken. How long has he been a prospect? I think Beckett has a far greater chance of being a great pitcher than ramirez being nomar.

And trading ramirez, who is ready for the majors, is not gutting the farm system. He's been developed. No room for him, use him to get another young player. That's not abandoning the system, that's using the system

gtr

Or as said at bronxbanter:

"The Red Sox are giving up a guy who's been more hype than performance (Hanley) and their 3rd, maybe their 4th, best pitching prospect (behind Papelbon, Lester, and Abe Alvarez), and a potential sleeper pitcher."

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